The scientific process is a means for turning the results of experiments into knowledge about the world in which we live. Much research effort has been directed toward automating this process. To do this, one needs to formulate the scientific process in a precise mathematical language. This paper outlines one such language. What is presented here is hardly new. The material leans much on great thinkers of times past as well as more modern contributions. The novel contributions of this paper are: A new, general data processing inequality, a bias variance decomposition for canonical losses, Streamlined proofs of the Blackwell-Sherman-Stein and Randomization Theorems, and Means to calculate deficiency via linear programming.

In this paper, we take a statistical decision-theoretic viewpoint on social choice, putting a focus on the decision to be made on behalf of a system of agents. In our framework, we are given a statistical ranking model, a decision space, and a loss function defined on (parameter, decision) pairs, and formulate social choice mechanisms as decision rules that minimize expected loss. This suggests a general framework for the design and analysis of new social choice mechanisms. We compare Bayesian estimators, which minimize Bayesian expected loss, for the Mallows model and the Condorcet model respectively, and the Kemeny rule. We consider various normative properties, in addition to computational complexity and asymptotic behavior. In particular, we show that the Bayesian estimator for the Condorcet model satisfies some desired properties such as anonymity, neutrality, and monotonicity, can be computed in polynomial time, and is asymptotically different from the other two rules when the data are generated from the Condorcet model for some ground truth parameter.

In this paper, we take a statistical decision-theoretic viewpoint on social choice, putting a focus on the decision to be made on behalf of a system of agents. In our framework, we are given a statistical ranking model, a decision space, and a loss function defined on (parameter, decision) pairs, and formulate social choice mechanisms as decision rules that minimize expected loss. This suggests a general framework for the design and analysis of new social choice mechanisms. We compare Bayesian estimators, which minimize Bayesian expected loss, for the Mallows model and the Condorcet model respectively, and the Kemeny rule. We consider various normative properties, in addition to computational complexity and asymptotic behavior. In particular, we show that the Bayesian estimator for the Condorcet model satisfies some desired properties such as anonymity, neutrality, and monotonicity, can be computed in polynomial time, and is asymptotically different from the other two rules when the data are generated from the Condorcet model for some ground truth parameter.

In automatic speech recognition (ASR) research, discriminative criteria have achieved superior performance in DNN-HMM systems. Given this success, the adoption of discriminative criteria is promising to boost the performance of end-to-end (E2E) ASR systems. With this motivation, previous works have introduced the minimum Bayesian risk (MBR, one of the discriminative criteria) into E2E ASR systems. However, the effectiveness and efficiency of the MBR-based methods are compromised: the MBR criterion is only used in system training, which creates a mismatch between training and decoding; the on-the-fly decoding process in MBR-based methods results in the need for pre-trained models and slow training speeds. To this end, novel algorithms are proposed in this work to integrate another widely used discriminative criterion, lattice-free maximum mutual information (LF-MMI), into E2E ASR systems not only in the training stage but also in the decoding process. The proposed LF-MMI training and decoding methods show their effectiveness on two widely used E2E frameworks: Attention-Based Encoder-Decoders (AEDs) and Neural Transducers (NTs). Compared with MBR-based methods, the proposed LF-MMI method: maintains the consistency between training and decoding; eschews the on-the-fly decoding process; trains from randomly initialized models with superior training efficiency. Experiments suggest that the LF-MMI method outperforms its MBR counterparts and consistently leads to statistically significant performance improvements on various frameworks and datasets from 30 hours to 14.3k hours. The proposed method achieves state-of-the-art (SOTA) results on Aishell-1 (CER 4.10%) and Aishell-2 (CER 5.02%) datasets. Code is released.

Feature selection measures are often explained by the analogy to a rule to measure the "distance" of sets of features to the "closest" ideal sets of features. An ideal feature set is such that it can determine classes uniquely and correctly. This way of explanation was just an analogy before this paper. In this paper, we show a way to map arbitrary feature sets of datasets into a common metric space, which is indexed by a real number p with 1 p . Since this determines the distance between an arbitrary pair of feature sets, even if they belong to different datasets, the distance of a feature set to the closest ideal feature set can be used as a feature selection measure. Surprisingly, when p 1, the measure is identical to the Bayesian risk, which is probably the feature selection measure that is used the most widely in the literature. For 1 p, the measure is novel and has significantly different properties from the Bayesian risk. We also investigate the correlation between measurements by these measures and classification accuracy through experiments. As a result, we show that our novel measures with p 1 exhibit stronger correlation than the Bayesian risk.

Active inference offers a first principle account of sentient behaviour, from which special and important cases can be derived, e.g., reinforcement learning, active learning, Bayes optimal inference, Bayes optimal design, etc. Active inference resolves the exploitation-exploration dilemma in relation to prior preferences, by placing information gain on the same footing as reward or value. In brief, active inference replaces value functions with functionals of (Bayesian) beliefs, in the form of an expected (variational) free energy. In this paper, we consider a sophisticated kind of active inference, using a recursive form of expected free energy. Sophistication describes the degree to which an agent has beliefs about beliefs. We consider agents with beliefs about the counterfactual consequences of action for states of affairs and beliefs about those latent states. In other words, we move from simply considering beliefs about "what would happen if I did that" to "what would I believe about what would happen if I did that". The recursive form of the free energy functional effectively implements a deep tree search over actions and outcomes in the future. Crucially, this search is over sequences of belief states, as opposed to states per se. We illustrate the competence of this scheme, using numerical simulations of deep decision problems.

In this paper, we take a statistical decision-theoretic viewpoint on social choice, putting a focus on the decision to be made on behalf of a system of agents. In our framework, we are given a statistical ranking model, a decision space, and a loss function defined on (parameter, decision) pairs, and formulate social choice mechanisms as decision rules that minimize expected loss. This suggests a general framework for the design and analysis of new social choice mechanisms. We compare Bayesian estimators, which minimize Bayesian expected loss, for the Mallows model and the Condorcet model respectively, and the Kemeny rule. We consider various normative properties, in addition to computational complexity and asymptotic behavior. In particular, we show that the Bayesian estimator for the Condorcet model satisfies some desired properties such as anonymity, neutrality, and monotonicity, can be computed in polynomial time, and is asymptotically different from the other two rules when the data are generated from the Condorcet model for some ground truth parameter.

Feature selection measures are often explained by the analogy to a rule to measure the “distance” of sets of features to the “closest” ideal sets of features. An ideal feature set is such that it can determine classes uniquely and correctly. This way of explanation was just an analogy before this paper. In this paper, we show a way to map arbitrary feature sets of datasets into a common metric space, which is indexed by a real number p with 1 ≤ p ≤ ∞. Since this determines the distance between an arbitrary pair of feature sets, even if they belong to different datasets, the distance of a feature set to the closest ideal feature set can be used as a feature selection measure. Surprisingly, when p = 1, the measure is identical to the Bayesian risk, which is probably the feature selection measure that is used the most widely in the literature. For 1 < p ≤ ∞, the measure is novel and has significantly different properties from the Bayesian risk. We also investigate the correlation between measurements by these measures and classification accuracy through experiments. As a result, we show that our novel measures with p > 1 exhibit stronger correlation than the Bayesian risk.

In this paper, we take a statistical decision-theoretic viewpoint on social choice, putting a focus on the decision to be made on behalf of a system of agents. In our framework, we are given a statistical ranking model, a decision space, and a loss function defined on (parameter, decision) pairs, and formulate social choice mechanisms as decision rules that minimize expected loss. This suggests a general framework for the design and analysis of new social choice mechanisms. We compare Bayesian estimators, which minimize Bayesian expected loss, for the Mallows model and the Condorcet model respectively, and the Kemeny rule. We consider various normative properties, in addition to computational complexity and asymptotic behavior. In particular, we show that the Bayesian estimator for the Condorcet model satisfies some desired properties such as anonymity, neutrality, and monotonicity, can be computed in polynomial time, and is asymptotically different from the other two rules when the data are generated from the Condorcet model for some ground truth parameter.